TO:       Trump Campaign Senior Leadership Team

FROM:  Tim Saler, Grassroots Targeting – Chief Data Consultant, DJTFP / RNC

SUBJ:   Harris’ Sunday mobilization effort falls way short in North Carolina & Georgia

DATE:   October 28, 2024

The biggest and most important turnout day for the Harris campaign during North Carolina and Georgia early voting has come and gone with minimal impact on the electorate.

In North Carolina, Republicans maintain a roughly 1-point lead in combined mail and early votes cast after the Harris campaign’s Sunday voter mobilization effort, often referred to by Democrats as their “Souls to the Polls” program. This get-out-the-vote push is historically the single largest mobilization day for Democrats during the entire early voting period.

Republicans took the lead last week for the first time in the history of North Carolina early voting and continue to hold that lead as of today. At this point in 2020, Democrats led the mail and early vote by about ten points. In 2022, they led by about eight points.

In Georgia, turnout for this past Sunday’s voting was 15 percent lower than the first Sunday of early voting, an ominous sign for Harris’ ground game efforts. Furthermore, public polling indicates Harris continues to struggle with African-American voters while President Trump is set to shatter decades-old records for his share of their support. 

After Sunday’s voting, African-American voters in Georgia presently make up just 26 percent of the mail and early votes cast in Georgia. At this point in 2020, they made up 29 percent of the vote, and at this point in 2022 they made up 30 percent.

Read the memo here.