TO:          Trump Campaign Senior Leadership Team

 

FROM:    Tim Saler, Grassroots Targeting – Chief Data Consultant, DJTFP / RNC

 

SUBJ:      The Blue Mirage of Mail-in & Early Ballots

 

DATE:      September 6, 2024

 

We are about to enter a new phase of the campaign: the start of absentee, mail-in, and early voting.

 

To be clear: Kamala Harris’s campaign and their allies in the fake news media are already spreading misinformation about the state of play as part of a coordinated and intentional voter suppression effort against President Trump’s supporters. Every data point will be cherry-picked to discourage people from voting for President Trump and to thwart our campaign’s efforts to swamp the vote and deliver a victory on November 5ththat is too big to rig.

 

To help combat these voter suppression efforts, here are some facts about the “Blue Mirage” of the earliest ballots that will be requested and voted in battleground states, and how early Democrat leads in absentee and vote by mail are not at all predictive of victory on November 5th and may, in fact, be indicating a major failure to meet the enormous margins that they delivered in the 2020 election:

 

North Carolina

 

Ballots will go out imminently in North Carolina, marking the start of pre-Election Day voting in the battleground states. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 2:1 in requested absentee ballots in 2020. In 2020, President Trump carried North Carolina despite a 421,912 ballot deficit in absentee by-mail votes.

 

Pennsylvania

 

Thanks to Pennsylvania’s permanent absentee application list, Democrats had a nearly 3:1 advantage in requested absentee ballots in the 2020 campaign. In 2020, President Trump fought off a 1,400,150 ballot deficit in absentee and mail-in ballots, including drop boxes.

 

Nevada

 

Nevada has near-universal mail-in ballots, although many voters still choose to vote early in-person or on Election Day instead. As a result, mail-in ballot returns were nearly 2:1 Democrat over Republican in the 2020 election. In Clark County, President Trump fought off a 130,727 ballot deficit among mail-in ballots.  

 

Arizona

 

Due to the permanent early vote list, Arizona is unique in that Republicans and Democrats are competitive in terms of the total number of ballots mailed out. However, many Republicans choose to vote early in-person or on Election Day instead. President Trump fought off a 138,476 deficit among all early ballots in 2020, including early in-person votes.

 

Michigan

 

Michigan does not have party registration, but we know from our own analysis that behavioral Democrats outnumbered behavioral Republicans in absentee and mail-in voting by a 2:1 margin in the 2020 election, and these votes totaled nearly 60 percent of all ballots cast, more than 3.2 million in aggregate. The New York Times reported a Biden +40 advantage among absentee ballots in Michigan.

 

Wisconsin

 

Similar to Michigan, Wisconsin does not have party registration. We know from our analysis that behavioral Democrats outnumbered behavioral Republicans by a more than 3:1 margin, approaching a 4:1 margin, among absentee and mail ballots in 2020. Roughly 40 percent of votes cast in 2020 in Wisconsin were done by mail, including drop boxes, totaling roughly 1.3 million ballots in aggregate.

 

Georgia

 

Georgia also lacks party registration, but we know from election results that President Trump fought off a 398,204 ballot deficit among absentee by mail votes in 2020.

 

Read the full memo here.

---