CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM

TO: Trump Campaign Senior Leadership Team

FROM: Tony Fabrizio, Chief Pollster, DJTFP / RNC Tim Saler, Grassroots Targeting – Chief Data Consultant, DJTFP / RNC

SUBJ: NYT / Siena polls in Sun Belt States

DATE: August 17, 2024

BLUF: The latest Sun Belt swing state polls of Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada conducted by the New York Times and Siena College are, once again, a perfect example of how wildly inaccurate recalled 2020 vote between President Trump and Joe Biden is being used to create a phony lead for Kamala Harris. Fortunately, they proved our case for us this week, because they actually got Georgia right: among registered voters, they have a dead-even split between President Trump and Joe Biden on the recalled 2020 vote. As a result, President Trump leads Kamala Harris by 7 points (51-44) in the 2024 head-to-head matchup among all registered voters. Arizona and Nevada however look nothing like the 2020 reported results. If they did, President Trump would lead by 3 points (50-47) in Arizona and by 9 (53-44) in Nevada.

Even with the understatement of President Trump’s 2020 support in these key states and an unrepresentative weighting scheme relative to their Electoral Vote weights between the states surveyed, President Trump is consistently overperforming among black voters and voters aged 18-29, and has better fidelity among registered Republicans and 2020 supporters than Kamala Harris does among registered Democrats and 2020 Biden voters.

As a reminder, four days before the 2020 election NYT / Siena polls had President Trump trailing in Arizona by 6 (49-43), and eight days before the 2020 election they had President Trump trailing in Nevada by 6 (49-43). Their last Georgia poll, fifteen days before the 2020 election, showed a tied race.

Read the full memo here.