TO:         Trump Campaign Senior Leadership Team

 

FROM:   Tony Fabrizio, Fabrizio Lee & Associates – Chief Pollster, DJTFP / RNC

               Tim Saler, Grassroots Targeting – Chief Data Consultant, DJTFP / RNC

 

SUBJ:     Des Moines Register outlier poll versus stable Emerson College survey of Iowa

 

DATE:    November 2, 2024

 

BLUF: Des Moines Register is a clear outlier poll. Emerson College, released today, far more closely reflects the state of the actual Iowa electorate and does so with far more transparency in their methodology.

 

Facts about voter registration & early voting:

Voter registration on Election Day 2020: R+0.5% (+10,547 voters)

Voter registration as of today: R+6.4% (+143,490 voters)

These figures include inactive voters; the margins are improved if reviewing only active voters.

 

Absentee & early voting as of this point in 2020: D+13 (-121,602 voters)

Absentee & early voting as of today: even (-20 voters)

 

To their credit, the Emerson College poll has an R+4 party split (below 2020 exit polls at R+10), and a Trump +8 recalled 2020 vote margin that aligns with reported returns. Emerson shows Trump ahead of Harris 53-43 in their survey.

 

In the outlier Des Moines Register poll, they claim Harris leads with seniors (age 65+) by 19 points (55-36). In 2020, President Trump carried seniors 54-45 over Biden according to CNN exit polls.

 

The Emerson College poll released today concurs with the CNN exits from 2020, with President Trump solidly ahead 54-45 among voters aged 60-69, and 54-44 among voters aged 70+.

 

The Des Moines Register also claims Harris leads by 20 points among women (56-36). In 2020, President Trump tied Biden 49-49 among women according to CNN exits.

 

Once again, Emerson College's poll today is more similar to the exits, showing instead a lead for President Trump of 5 points - 52-47.

 

Des Moines Register claims President Trump leads 51-39 among voters without a college degree. In 2020, President Trump won non-college voters by 17 points (58-41).

 

Yet again, Emerson College's poll from today agrees, with President Trump leading strongly among voters who have less than a 4-year degree.

  

Unlike Emerson which transparently reports its share of partisans and the 2020 vote recall, Des Moines Register does NOT disclose the distribution of this information, even though they asked it in their survey.

 

Emerson College reports President Trump leading strongly 93-7 among Republicans, while getting 8% of Democrats to Harris's 92%. President Trump solidly leads among independents 55-42.

 

Read the full memo here.

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