"The Fake News Media continue to help dangerously liberal Kamala hide her record of economic failure and soft on crime policies. Now, as this analysis shows they'll even put a finger on the scale of polling to inflate results for her. This analysis is why the American people are seeing through it and will not allow this national gaslighting campaign to win. Despite this manipulated result, from CBS/YouGov it's worth noting that in July and August of 2020, their data showed Biden leading by 10 nationally, reflecting a net positive movement of almost +10 to President Trump this election cycle.” -Brian Hughes, Senior Advisor 

 

CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM

 

FROM: Tim Saler, Grassroots Targeting – Chief Data Consultant, DJTFP / RNC

TO: Trump for President Senior Leadership

SUBJ: CBS / YouGov national survey allowing ideology to float

DATE: August 4, 2024

 

BLUF: The latest CBS / YouGov poll of registered voters nationwide showing margin-of-error shifts in the national head-to-head ballot between President Trump and Kamala Harris is entirely the result of a methodological decision allowing ideology to change significantly, while maintaining weights on age, partisanship, and race to make the survey appear not to have been manipulated. Without this manipulation, President Trump would be maintaining a 51-49 lead in their August 4 survey.

 

July 18th Survey

 

In the CBS / YouGov survey fielded July 16-18 ( https://www.scribd.com/document/752724558/Cbsnews-20240718-National ), Question 10 tests a head-to-head presidential ballot between President Trump and Kamala Harris. In that data, President Trump leads by 3 points (51-48).

 

In the crosstab analysis, Harris leads President Trump 94-6 among self-identified liberals and 53-46 among self-identified moderates, while President Trump leads 91-8 among self-identified conservatives.

 

Importantly, self-identified liberals make up 28.5% of the weighted respondents (639 of 2,240), self-identified moderates make up 31.8% of the weighted respondents (713 of 2,240), and self-identified conservatives make up 36.7% of the weighted respondents (821 of 2,240).

 

August 4th Survey

 

In the CBS / YouGov survey fielded July 30-August 2 ( https://www.scribd.com/document/755981929/cbsnews-20240804- SUN#from_embed ), Question 5 tests against a head-to-head presidential ballot between President Trump and Kamala Harris. This time, they show a margin-of-error (± 2.1%) movement that results in Harris leading President Trump 50-49.

 

When looking at those same crosstabs by ideology, we find Harris leads President Trump 95-4 among liberals and 56-43 among moderates, and President Trump leads 94-6 among conservatives.

 

However, CBS / YouGov allowed the share of registered voters to shift on the share of each ideological group. In this survey, liberals make up 30.2% of the weighted respondents (935 of 3,092), an increase of +1.7% compared to July 18. Moderates make up 30.3% of weighted respondents (938 of 3,092), a decrease of -1.5% compared to July 18. Conservatives make up just 35.5% of weighted respondents (1,097 of 3,092), a decrease of -1.2% compared to July 18.

 

This occurred all while CBS / YouGov made a point to hold stable their weights for age, race, sex, and partisanship. Had CBS / YouGov done the same on ideology, President Trump would be maintaining a 51-49 lead in the August 4 survey. 

 

Read the full memo here. 

 

Also noteworthy: the state results in this same polling release are NOT state specific polls, but "modeling."

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