CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM

TO: Trump Campaign Senior Leadership Team

FROM: Tony Fabrizio, Chief Pollster, DJTFP/RNC

Tim Saler, Grassroots Targeting – Chief Data Consultant, DJTFP / RNC

SUBJ: NYT / Siena polls

DATE: August 10, 2024

BLUF: The latest swing state polls of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin conducted by the New York Times and Siena College helpfully include the recalled 2020 presidential vote between President Trump and Joe Biden. They have dramatically understated President Trump’s support both among all registered voters and in their likely-voter model. In each state, the gap between the survey’s recalled 2020 vote and the reported 2020 election results is more than the margin between Kamala Harris and President Trump. Once again, we see a series of public surveys released with the clear intent and purpose of depressing support for President Trump.

Even with the understatement of President Trump’s 2020 support and an unrepresentative weighting scheme relative to their Electoral Vote weights between the three states, President Trump leads by +1 (47-46) among independents in the head-to-head ballot, has more than doubled his support among all registered black voters since 2020, is essentially tied among those of Latino or Asian heritage, has narrowed the gap among those aged 18-29 to single digits, and leads among registered voters who are new to the electorate and did not participate in 2020. This is nothing new, as NYT / Siena College polls have historically understated President Trump’s vote share. In the final poll completed just four days before the 2020 election, they found President Trump trailing in Pennsylvania by 6 points (49-43) and trailing in Wisconsin by 11 points (52-41). Eight days before the 2020 presidential election, they found President Trump trailing in Michigan by 8 points (49-41).